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Volna vs Torpedo BelAZ II — 1. Division 2018

Volna
Volna
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Torpedo BelAZ II
Torpedo BelAZ II
9/13/20241. Division1. Division · Round 24Stadyen Valna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Volna59%
×Draw20%
Torpedo BelAZ II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volna
2.23
Torpedo BelAZ II
1.27

Volna creates 76% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 17 away

creates per match

Volna
1.74
Torpedo BelAZ II
0.94

allows per match

Volna
1.60
Torpedo BelAZ II
2.71

finishing

Volna+0.00on par
Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volna ↓

Torpedo BelAZ II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Volna or draw
79%
Volna or Torpedo BelAZ II
80%
Draw or Torpedo BelAZ II
41%

Winning margin

Volna wins by 2+
37%
Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Volna 1+ goals
89%
Volna 2+ goals
65%
Volna 3+ goals
38%
Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals
72%
Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals
36%
Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Volna (draw refunded)
74%
Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volna at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.60 · 129 matches

Torpedo BelAZ II away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volna attack 1.74 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.23

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 0.94 + Volna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Volna scores more
59%
level
20%
Torpedo BelAZ II scores more
21%

Volna at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Volna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volna vs Torpedo BelAZ II

Volna beat Torpedo BelAZ II 3-0 in 1. Division on September 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Valna in Pinsk.