Volna 3–0 Shakhtyor Petrikov: Result & Stats

Volna

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Shakhtyor Petrikov

M. Grechikha 45+3', 45+1' (pen)

A. Shepelev 6'

6/17/2023

1. Division · Round 12Stadyen Valna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Volna42%

×Draw23%

Shakhtyor Petrikov35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VolnaExpected goals in this matchShakhtyor Petrikov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.56

Volna

1.71

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.56

Volna creates 10% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 62 away

1.74

creates per match

1.53

1.60

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Volna

1.74

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.53

allows per match

Volna

1.60

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volna+0.00on par

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volna ↓

Shakhtyor Petrikov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Volna or draw

65%

Volna or Shakhtyor Petrikov

77%

Draw or Shakhtyor Petrikov

58%

Winning margin

Volna wins by 2+

22%

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Volna 1+ goals

82%

Volna 2+ goals

51%

Volna 3+ goals

24%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals

79%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals

46%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Volna (draw refunded)

54%

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volna at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.60 · 129 matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volna attack 1.74 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.53 + Volna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Volna scores more

42%

level

23%

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more

35%

Volna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Volna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

A. Shepelev

37'

D. Klepach← K. Polkhovskiy

44'

N. Dovnar

44'

V. Prigodich← Y. Basalyga

45+1'

M. GrechikhaPenalty

45+3'

M. Grechikha

46'

M. Tychko

46'

A. Bolvan← A. Ivanov

46'

T. Tikhonovich← N. Dovnar

53'

A. Garost← A. Chakur

67'

D. Shulyak

74'

D. Stain← G. Muradyan

76'

85'

88'

90+2'

90+1'

A. Tatarevich← D. Tkachik

Volna

Shakhtyor

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Yaskovich

37'▲D. Klepach←▼K. Polkhovskiy

74'▲D. Stain←▼G. Muradyan

90+1'▲A. Tatarevich←▼D. Tkachik

Volna substitutes

KlepachStainTatarevichKoltyginVolodko

Manager: S. Lushchan

44'▲V. Prigodich←▼Y. Basalyga

46'▲A. Bolvan←▼A. Ivanov

46'▲T. Tikhonovich←▼N. Dovnar

53'▲A. Garost←▼A. Chakur

Shakhtyor Petrikov substitutes

PrigodichBolvanTikhonovichGarostSmaltserSelivanovProtasenya