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Volna vs Shakhter Soligorsk — Coppa 2026

Volna
Volnaadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shakhter Soligorsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
7/14/2024CoppaCoppa · Round of 32Stadyen Valna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Volna14%
×Draw20%
Shakhter Soligorsk66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volna
0.81
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.04

Shakhter Soligorsk creates 152% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

creates per match

Volna
0.57
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.94

allows per match

Volna
2.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.06

finishing

Volna+0.00on par
Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volna ↓

Shakhter Soligorsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Volna or draw
34%
Volna or Shakhter Soligorsk
80%
Draw or Shakhter Soligorsk
86%

Winning margin

Volna wins by 2+
4%
Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Volna 1+ goals
56%
Volna 2+ goals
19%
Volna 3+ goals
5%
Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals
87%
Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals
60%
Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Volna (draw refunded)
18%
Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volna at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Shakhter Soligorsk away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volna attack 0.57 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.81

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.94 + Volna defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Volna scores more
14%
level
20%
Shakhter Soligorsk scores more
66%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa: Volna 1–0 Shakhter Soligorsk

Volna beat Shakhter Soligorsk 1-0 in Coppa on July 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Valna in Pinsk.