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Volna vs Ruh Brest — 1. Division 2018

Volna
Volna
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
11/16/20191. Division1. Division · Round 29Stadyen Valna (Pinsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Volna24%
×Draw22%
Ruh Brest54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volna
1.30
Ruh Brest
2.02

Ruh Brest creates 55% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 14 away

creates per match

Volna
1.74
Ruh Brest
2.43

allows per match

Volna
1.60
Ruh Brest
0.86

finishing

Volna+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volna ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Volna or draw
46%
Volna or Ruh Brest
78%
Draw or Ruh Brest
76%

Winning margin

Volna wins by 2+
10%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Volna 1+ goals
73%
Volna 2+ goals
37%
Volna 3+ goals
14%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
87%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
60%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Volna (draw refunded)
31%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volna at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.60 · 129 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volna attack 1.74 + Ruh Brest defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ruh Brest attack 2.43 + Volna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Volna scores more
24%
level
22%
Ruh Brest scores more
54%

Ruh Brest at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volna vs Ruh Brest

Ruh Brest beat Volna 4-2 in 1. Division on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadyen Valna (Pinsk).