Volna 1–0 Khimik Svetlogorsk: Result & Stats

Volna

FT

1 – 0

Khimik Svetlogorsk

9/8/2018

1. Division · Round 21Stadyen Valna (Pinsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Volna51%

×Draw23%

Khimik Svetlogorsk26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VolnaExpected goals in this matchKhimik Svetlogorsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.26

Volna

1.85

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.26

Volna creates 47% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 59 away

1.69

creates per match

0.92

1.59

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Volna

1.69

Khimik Svetlogorsk

0.92

allows per match

Volna

1.59

Khimik Svetlogorsk

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volna+0.00on par

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volna ↓

Khimik Svetlogorsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Volna or draw

74%

Volna or Khimik Svetlogorsk

77%

Draw or Khimik Svetlogorsk

49%

Winning margin

Volna wins by 2+

29%

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Volna 1+ goals

84%

Volna 2+ goals

55%

Volna 3+ goals

28%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals

72%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals

36%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Volna (draw refunded)

66%

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.59 · 131 matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.02 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volna attack 1.69 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.85

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 0.92 + Volna defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Volna scores more

51%

level

23%

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more

26%

Volna at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Volna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff