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Volna Nizhegorodskaya vs Zenit Izhevsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
6/4/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Volna Nizhegorodskaya47%
×Draw26%
Zenit Izhevsk28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.53
Zenit Izhevsk
1.11

Volna Nizhegorodskaya creates 38% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 41 away

creates per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.38
Zenit Izhevsk
0.93

allows per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.30
Zenit Izhevsk
1.68

finishing

Volna Nizhegorodskaya+0.00on par
Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volna Nizhegorodskaya ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Volna Nizhegorodskaya or draw
72%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya or Zenit Izhevsk
74%
Draw or Zenit Izhevsk
53%

Winning margin

Volna Nizhegorodskaya wins by 2+
24%
Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1+ goals
78%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2+ goals
45%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 3+ goals
20%
Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
67%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
30%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Volna Nizhegorodskaya (draw refunded)
63%
Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya attack 1.38 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

Zenit Izhevsk attack 0.93 + Volna Nizhegorodskaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Volna Nizhegorodskaya scores more
47%
level
26%
Zenit Izhevsk scores more
28%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Volna Nizhegorodskaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volna Nizhegorodskaya vs Zenit Izhevsk

Volna Nizhegorodskaya and Zenit Izhevsk drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 4 on June 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Nizhniy Novgorod.