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Volna Nizhegorodskaya vs Nizhny Novgorod II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod II
Nizhny Novgorod II
10/12/2024Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Sportkompleks Kupera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Volna Nizhegorodskaya63%
×Draw21%
Nizhny Novgorod II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
2.00
Nizhny Novgorod II
0.88

Volna Nizhegorodskaya creates 127% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 13 away

creates per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.38
Nizhny Novgorod II
0.46

allows per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.30
Nizhny Novgorod II
2.62

finishing

Volna Nizhegorodskaya+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volna Nizhegorodskaya ↓

Nizhny Novgorod II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Volna Nizhegorodskaya or draw
84%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya or Nizhny Novgorod II
79%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod II
37%

Winning margin

Volna Nizhegorodskaya wins by 2+
39%
Nizhny Novgorod II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1+ goals
86%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2+ goals
59%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 3+ goals
32%
Nizhny Novgorod II 1+ goals
59%
Nizhny Novgorod II 2+ goals
22%
Nizhny Novgorod II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Volna Nizhegorodskaya (draw refunded)
80%
Nizhny Novgorod II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

Nizhny Novgorod II away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya attack 1.38 + Nizhny Novgorod II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.00

Nizhny Novgorod II attack 0.46 + Volna Nizhegorodskaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Volna Nizhegorodskaya scores more
63%
level
21%
Nizhny Novgorod II scores more
16%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Volna Nizhegorodskaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Volna Nizhegorodskaya 4–0 Nizhny Novgorod II

Volna Nizhegorodskaya beat Nizhny Novgorod II 4-0 in Second League - Group 4 on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Kupera in Zavolzhye.