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Volna Nizhegorodskaya vs Lada Tolyatti — Second League - Group 4 2020

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lada Tolyatti
Lada Tolyatti
5/6/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Volna Nizhegorodskaya64%
×Draw20%
Lada Tolyatti17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
2.16
Lada Tolyatti
1.00

Volna Nizhegorodskaya creates 116% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 41 away

creates per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.38
Lada Tolyatti
0.71

allows per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.30
Lada Tolyatti
2.93

finishing

Volna Nizhegorodskaya+0.00on par
Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volna Nizhegorodskaya ↓

Lada Tolyatti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Volna Nizhegorodskaya or draw
83%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya or Lada Tolyatti
80%
Draw or Lada Tolyatti
36%

Winning margin

Volna Nizhegorodskaya wins by 2+
40%
Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1+ goals
88%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2+ goals
63%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 3+ goals
36%
Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals
63%
Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals
26%
Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Volna Nizhegorodskaya (draw refunded)
79%
Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

Lada Tolyatti away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya attack 1.38 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.16

Lada Tolyatti attack 0.71 + Volna Nizhegorodskaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Volna Nizhegorodskaya scores more
64%
level
20%
Lada Tolyatti scores more
17%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Volna Nizhegorodskaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Volna Nizhegorodskaya 0–0 Lada Tolyatti

Volna Nizhegorodskaya and Lada Tolyatti drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 4 on May 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Nizhniy Novgorod.