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Volna Nizhegorodskaya vs Kairat Moskva — Second League - Group 2 2020

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
4/9/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 2Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Volna Nizhegorodskaya26%
×Draw23%
Kairat Moskva50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.23
Kairat Moskva
1.78

Kairat Moskva creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.25
Kairat Moskva
1.00

allows per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
2.56
Kairat Moskva
1.20

finishing

Volna Nizhegorodskaya+0.00on par
Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volna Nizhegorodskaya ↓

Kairat Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Volna Nizhegorodskaya or draw
50%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya or Kairat Moskva
77%
Draw or Kairat Moskva
74%

Winning margin

Volna Nizhegorodskaya wins by 2+
11%
Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1+ goals
71%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2+ goals
35%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 3+ goals
13%
Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
83%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
53%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Volna Nizhegorodskaya (draw refunded)
35%
Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.56 · 16 matches

Kairat Moskva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya attack 1.25 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kairat Moskva attack 1.00 + Volna Nizhegorodskaya defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Volna Nizhegorodskaya scores more
26%
level
23%
Kairat Moskva scores more
50%

Kairat Moskva at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kairat Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1–4 Kairat Moskva

Kairat Moskva beat Volna Nizhegorodskaya 4-1 in Second League - Group 2 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Khimik in Dzerzhinsk.