Völkermarkt 1–2 Maria Saal: Result & Stats

Völkermarkt

FT

1 – 2

Maria Saal

8/15/2022

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 5Lilienberg-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Völkermarkt58%

×Draw19%

Maria Saal22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VölkermarktExpected goals in this matchMaria Saal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.42

Völkermarkt

2.37

Maria Saal

1.42

Völkermarkt creates 67% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 49 away

2.20

creates per match

1.43

1.40

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Völkermarkt

2.20

Maria Saal

1.43

allows per match

Völkermarkt

1.40

Maria Saal

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Völkermarkt+0.00on par

Maria Saal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Völkermarkt ↓

Maria Saal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Völkermarkt or draw

78%

Völkermarkt or Maria Saal

81%

Draw or Maria Saal

42%

Winning margin

Völkermarkt wins by 2+

37%

Maria Saal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Völkermarkt 1+ goals

91%

Völkermarkt 2+ goals

68%

Völkermarkt 3+ goals

42%

Maria Saal 1+ goals

76%

Maria Saal 2+ goals

41%

Maria Saal 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Völkermarkt (draw refunded)

72%

Maria Saal (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Völkermarkt at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 90 matches

Maria Saal away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Völkermarkt attack 2.20 + Maria Saal defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.37

Maria Saal attack 1.43 + Völkermarkt defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Völkermarkt scores more

58%

level

19%

Maria Saal scores more

22%

Völkermarkt at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Völkermarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff