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Völkermarkt vs Admira Villach — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Völkermarkt
Völkermarkt
FT
1 – 1
Admira Villach
Admira Villach
11/6/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 17Lilienberg-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Völkermarkt68%
×Draw17%
Admira Villach15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Völkermarkt
2.63
Admira Villach
1.17

Völkermarkt creates 125% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 17 away

creates per match

Völkermarkt
2.20
Admira Villach
0.94

allows per match

Völkermarkt
1.40
Admira Villach
3.06

finishing

Völkermarkt+0.00on par
Admira Villach+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Völkermarkt ↓

Admira Villach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Völkermarkt or draw
85%
Völkermarkt or Admira Villach
83%
Draw or Admira Villach
32%

Winning margin

Völkermarkt wins by 2+
47%
Admira Villach wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Völkermarkt 1+ goals
93%
Völkermarkt 2+ goals
73%
Völkermarkt 3+ goals
48%
Admira Villach 1+ goals
69%
Admira Villach 2+ goals
33%
Admira Villach 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Völkermarkt (draw refunded)
82%
Admira Villach (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Völkermarkt at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 90 matches

Admira Villach away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Völkermarkt attack 2.20 + Admira Villach defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.63

Admira Villach attack 0.94 + Völkermarkt defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Völkermarkt scores more
68%
level
17%
Admira Villach scores more
15%

Völkermarkt at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Völkermarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Völkermarkt vs Admira Villach

Völkermarkt and Admira Villach drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Lilienberg-Arena in Völkermarkt.