Volgar Astrakhan 0–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Volgar Astrakhan

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shinnik Yaroslavl

11/25/2023

First League · Round 20Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan40%

×Draw28%

Shinnik Yaroslavl31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volgar AstrakhanExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.04

Volgar Astrakhan

1.23

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.04

Volgar Astrakhan creates 18% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 123 away

0.99

creates per match

0.99

1.09

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan

0.99

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.99

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan

1.09

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw

69%

Volgar Astrakhan or Shinnik Yaroslavl

72%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

60%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

18%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

71%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

35%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

13%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

65%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

28%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

57%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.99 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.23

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

40%

level

28%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

31%

Volgar Astrakhan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff