Volgar Astrakhan 3–0 Legion Dynamo: Result & Stats

Volgar Astrakhan

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Legion Dynamo

A. Bolonin 89'

A. Stepanov 32'

V. Babaev 23'

7/28/2019

Cup · 2nd RoundCentral'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan68%

×Draw18%

Legion Dynamo14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volgar AstrakhanExpected goals in this matchLegion Dynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.01

Volgar Astrakhan

2.44

Legion Dynamo

1.01

Volgar Astrakhan creates 142% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.71

creates per match

1.17

0.86

allows per match

3.17

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan

1.71

Legion Dynamo

1.17

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan

0.86

Legion Dynamo

3.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Legion Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw

86%

Volgar Astrakhan or Legion Dynamo

82%

Draw or Legion Dynamo

32%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

46%

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

91%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

70%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

43%

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals

64%

Legion Dynamo 2+ goals

27%

Legion Dynamo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

83%

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 1.17, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.71 + Legion Dynamo defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.44

Legion Dynamo attack 1.17 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

68%

level

18%

Legion Dynamo scores more

14%

Volgar Astrakhan at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

V. Babaev

32'

A. Stepanov

46'

A. Myazin← Y. Pugachev

58'

A. Pavlishin← A. Dyshekov

58'

T. Talibov← R. Shikhaev

61'

D. Vorobjev← V. Babaev

69'

A. Bolonin← A. Pogosov

69'

N. Gadzhiev← N. Abilaev

74'

V. Garaev← A. Berdnikov

89'

A. Bolonin

Volgar

Legion

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Panov

46'▲A. Myazin←▼Y. Pugachev

58'▲A. Pavlishin←▼A. Dyshekov

61'▲D. Vorobjev←▼V. Babaev

69'▲A. Bolonin←▼A. Pogosov

74'▲V. Garaev←▼A. Berdnikov

Volgar Astrakhan substitutes

MyazinPavlishinVorobjevBoloninGaraev

Manager: A. Sadirov

58'▲T. Talibov←▼R. Shikhaev

69'▲N. Gadzhiev←▼N. Abilaev

Legion Dynamo substitutes

TalibovGadzhiev