Volgar Astrakhan 1–2 FK Sokol Saratov

Volgar Astrakhan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FK Sokol Saratov

9/2/2023

First League · Round 8Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan44%

×Draw29%

FK Sokol Saratov27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volgar AstrakhanExpected goals in this matchFK Sokol Saratov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.93

Volgar Astrakhan

1.27

FK Sokol Saratov

0.93

Volgar Astrakhan creates 37% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 51 away

0.99

creates per match

0.76

1.09

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan

0.99

FK Sokol Saratov

0.76

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan

1.09

FK Sokol Saratov

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw

73%

Volgar Astrakhan or FK Sokol Saratov

71%

Draw or FK Sokol Saratov

56%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

20%

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

72%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

36%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

14%

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals

61%

FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals

24%

FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

62%

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.99 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.76 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

44%

level

29%

FK Sokol Saratov scores more

27%

Volgar Astrakhan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff