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Volgar Astrakhan vs FK Neftekhimik — Cup 2019

Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
9/24/2025CupCup · Regions Path - 4th RoundCentral'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan37%
×Draw28%
FK Neftekhimik35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volgar Astrakhan
1.23
FK Neftekhimik
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan
1.71
FK Neftekhimik
1.50

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan
0.86
FK Neftekhimik
0.75

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw
65%
Volgar Astrakhan or FK Neftekhimik
72%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
63%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
16%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
71%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
35%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
13%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
69%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
33%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
52%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.71 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.23

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.50 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more
37%
level
28%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
35%

Volgar Astrakhan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volgar Astrakhan vs FK Neftekhimik

Volgar Astrakhan and FK Neftekhimik drew 1-1 in Cup on September 24, 2025.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom in Astrakhan'.