Volgar Astrakhan 1–0 FC UFA: Result & Stats

Volgar Astrakhan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC UFA

3/12/2023

First League · Round 22Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan43%

×Draw30%

FC UFA28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volgar AstrakhanExpected goals in this matchFC UFA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.90

Volgar Astrakhan

1.19

FC UFA

0.90

Volgar Astrakhan creates 32% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 50 away

0.99

creates per match

0.70

1.09

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan

0.99

FC UFA

0.70

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan

1.09

FC UFA

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

FC UFA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

FC UFA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw

72%

Volgar Astrakhan or FC UFA

70%

Draw or FC UFA

57%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

18%

FC UFA wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

70%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

33%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

12%

FC UFA 1+ goals

59%

FC UFA 2+ goals

23%

FC UFA 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

61%

FC UFA (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

FC UFA away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.40 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.99 + FC UFA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

FC UFA attack 0.70 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

43%

level

30%

FC UFA scores more

28%

Volgar Astrakhan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff