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Volgar Astrakhan vs Dolgoprudny — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
FT
2 – 1
Dolgoprudny
Dolgoprudny
6/23/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3UTC Kratovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan62%
×Draw20%
Dolgoprudny18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volgar Astrakhan
2.17
Dolgoprudny
1.08

Volgar Astrakhan creates 101% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan
2.67
Dolgoprudny
0.50

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan
1.67
Dolgoprudny
1.67

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par
Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Dolgoprudny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw
82%
Volgar Astrakhan or Dolgoprudny
80%
Draw or Dolgoprudny
38%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
39%
Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
89%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
64%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
36%
Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
66%
Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
29%
Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
77%
Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Dolgoprudny away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 2.67 + Dolgoprudny defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Dolgoprudny attack 0.50 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more
62%
level
20%
Dolgoprudny scores more
18%

Volgar Astrakhan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volgar Astrakhan vs Dolgoprudny

Volgar Astrakhan beat Dolgoprudny 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 23, 2021.

The match was played at UTC Kratovo in Moskva.