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Volgar Astrakhan vs Dinamo Moskva II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
FT
5 – 3
HT: 4 – 1
Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
V. Morozov 67', 45', 38', 14'
A. Pomalyuk 28'
V. Kudryavtsev 69', 65'
M. Nikiforov 44' (pen)
2/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan83%
×Draw9%
Dinamo Moskva II7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volgar Astrakhan
4.67
Dinamo Moskva II
1.50

Volgar Astrakhan creates 211% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan
2.67
Dinamo Moskva II
1.33

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan
1.67
Dinamo Moskva II
6.67

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par
Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Dinamo Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–18%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw
93%
Volgar Astrakhan or Dinamo Moskva II
91%
Draw or Dinamo Moskva II
17%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
69%
Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
99%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
93%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
81%
Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
44%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
92%
Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Dinamo Moskva II away — creates 1.33, concedes 6.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 2.67 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 6.67 → ÷2 → 4.67

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.33 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more
83%
level
9%
Dinamo Moskva II scores more
7%

Volgar Astrakhan at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
V. Morozov
28'
A. Pomalyuk
38'
V. Morozov
44'
M. NikiforovPenalty
45'
V. Morozov
65'
V. Kudryavtsev
67'
V. Morozov
69'
V. Kudryavtsev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Volgar Astrakhan 5–3 Dinamo Moskva II

Volgar Astrakhan beat Dinamo Moskva II 5-3 in Friendlies Clubs on February 18, 2026.

Goals: V. Morozov (14', 38', 45', 67'), A. Pomalyuk (28'), M. Nikiforov (44' pen), V. Kudryavtsev (65', 69').