Volgar Astrakhan vs Dinamo Kirov

Volgar Astrakhan

Preview

16:00

Dinamo Kirov

11/14/2026

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 18Tsentralnyi Stadion

45%

Volgar Astrakhan

model favours

45%28%27%

Dinamo Kirov are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

61%

under 2.5 goals

44%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan45%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Kirov27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volgar AstrakhanExpected goals in this matchDinamo Kirov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.93

Volgar Astrakhan

1.30

Dinamo Kirov

0.93

Volgar Astrakhan creates 40% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

1.04

creates per match

1.22

0.63

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan

1.04

Dinamo Kirov

1.22

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan

0.63

Dinamo Kirov

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Dinamo Kirov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw

73%

Volgar Astrakhan or Dinamo Kirov

72%

Draw or Dinamo Kirov

55%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

21%

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

73%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

37%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals

61%

Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals

24%

Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

63%

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Dinamo Kirov away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.04 + Dinamo Kirov defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dinamo Kirov attack 1.22 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

45%

level

28%

Dinamo Kirov scores more

27%

Volgar Astrakhan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Volgar Astrakhan score first in only 27% of matches
Dinamo Kirov score first in only 31% of matches
Both teams score in only 33% of Volgar Astrakhan’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Astrakhan

DWWWL

Kirov

DDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff