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Dinamo Kirov vs Volgar Astrakhan — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Dinamo Kirov
Dinamo Kirov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
11/16/2025Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 18VyatSShOR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Kirov32%
×Draw29%
Volgar Astrakhan39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Kirov
1.02
Volgar Astrakhan
1.15

Volgar Astrakhan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

creates per match

Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Volgar Astrakhan
1.19

allows per match

Dinamo Kirov
1.11
Volgar Astrakhan
1.04

finishing

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Kirov ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Kirov or draw
61%
Dinamo Kirov or Volgar Astrakhan
71%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
68%

Winning margin

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+
12%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals
27%
Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals
8%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
68%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
32%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)
45%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Kirov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Kirov attack 1.00 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.19 + Dinamo Kirov defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Kirov scores more
32%
level
29%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
39%

Volgar Astrakhan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Kirov vs Volgar Astrakhan

Volgar Astrakhan beat Dinamo Kirov 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at VyatSShOR.