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Volgar Astrakhan vs Baltika — First League 2018

Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Baltika
Baltika
4/30/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 35Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan30%
×Draw29%
Baltika41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volgar Astrakhan
0.99
Baltika
1.22

Baltika creates 23% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 109 away

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan
0.99
Baltika
1.34

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan
1.09
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw
59%
Volgar Astrakhan or Baltika
71%
Draw or Baltika
70%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
11%
Baltika wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
63%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
26%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
8%
Baltika 1+ goals
70%
Baltika 2+ goals
34%
Baltika 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
42%
Baltika (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.99 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Baltika attack 1.34 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more
30%
level
29%
Baltika scores more
41%

Baltika at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volgar Astrakhan vs Baltika

Volgar Astrakhan and Baltika drew 2-2 in First League on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom in Astrakhan'.