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Volgar Astrakhan vs Avangard Kursk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
7/28/2024Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 2Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan43%
×Draw28%
Avangard Kursk29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volgar Astrakhan
1.30
Avangard Kursk
1.03

Volgar Astrakhan creates 26% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan
1.04
Avangard Kursk
1.44

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan
0.63
Avangard Kursk
1.56

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw
71%
Volgar Astrakhan or Avangard Kursk
72%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
57%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
19%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
73%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
37%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
14%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
64%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
28%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
59%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.04 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.30

Avangard Kursk attack 1.44 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more
43%
level
28%
Avangard Kursk scores more
29%

Volgar Astrakhan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volgar Astrakhan vs Avangard Kursk

Volgar Astrakhan and Avangard Kursk drew 1-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom in Astrakhan'.