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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Zenit Izhevsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
10/31/2020Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk60%
×Draw24%
Zenit Izhevsk16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.69
Zenit Izhevsk
0.74

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 128% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 41 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.71
Zenit Izhevsk
0.93

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.54
Zenit Izhevsk
1.68

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
84%
Volga Ulyanovsk or Zenit Izhevsk
76%
Draw or Zenit Izhevsk
40%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
34%
Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
82%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
50%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
24%
Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
52%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
17%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
79%
Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.54 · 28 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.71 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Zenit Izhevsk attack 0.93 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
60%
level
24%
Zenit Izhevsk scores more
16%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Volga Ulyanovsk 2–0 Zenit Izhevsk

Volga Ulyanovsk beat Zenit Izhevsk 2-0 in Second League - Group 4 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Ulyanovsk.