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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Veles — First League 2018

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Veles
Veles
9/4/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk34%
×Draw28%
Veles38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.10
Veles
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 58 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.86
Veles
0.95

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.43
Veles
1.34

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Veles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
62%
Volga Ulyanovsk or Veles
72%
Draw or Veles
66%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
13%
Veles wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
67%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
30%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
10%
Veles 1+ goals
70%
Veles 2+ goals
33%
Veles 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
47%
Veles (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Veles away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + Veles defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.10

Veles attack 0.95 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
34%
level
28%
Veles scores more
38%

Veles at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Volga Ulyanovsk 0–2 Veles

Veles beat Volga Ulyanovsk 2-0 in First League on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Ulyanovsk.