Veles 1–2 Volga Ulyanovsk: Result & Stats

Veles

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Volga Ulyanovsk

G. Sarkisyan 34'

I. Gershun 61'

D. Kamenshchikov 31'

5/28/2025

League #1061 · Spring Season Gold - 15Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Veles21%

×Draw29%

Volga Ulyanovsk51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VelesExpected goals in this matchVolga Ulyanovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

1.32

Veles

0.73

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.32

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 81% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

0.71

creates per match

1.50

1.14

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Veles

0.71

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.50

allows per match

Veles

1.14

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veles+0.00on par

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →

0–013%

0–117%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–03%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Veles or draw

49%

Veles or Volga Ulyanovsk

71%

Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk

79%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals

52%

Veles 2+ goals

17%

Veles 3+ goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

73%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

38%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)

29%

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 0.71 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.73

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.50 + Veles defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Veles scores more

21%

level

29%

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

51%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

31'

34'

43'

46'

61'

62'

O. Krasilnichenko← Denis Rakhmanov

68'

M. Nasibov← G. Sarkisyan

68'

A. Arustamyan← E. Pesikov

74'

D. Kamenshchikov

75'

I. Dibirov← V. Kobakhidze

76'

O. Smirnov

83'

I. Maklakov← R. Sosranov

83'

I. Karpuk← O. Smirnov

83'

R. Minaev← D. Kamenshchikov

83'

D. Polyakh← L. Bagatelia

90+3'

M. Rybalko

90+1'

I. Maksimenkov← I. Dyatlov

Veles

Volga

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Sarkisyan

Manager: K. Alshevskiy

68'▲M. Nasibov←▼G. Sarkisyan

68'▲A. Arustamyan←▼E. Pesikov

75'▲I. Dibirov←▼V. Kobakhidze

83'▲I. Maklakov←▼R. Sosranov

83'▲I. Karpuk←▼O. Smirnov

Veles substitutes

25Nasibov70Arustamyan11Dibirov4Maklakov90Karpuk1Mitsaev7Umarov10Ivakin14Kotelnikov18Dzhamuev56Sidelnikov95Magomadov

Manager: M. Belov

46'▲I. Gershun←▼A. Murza

62'▲O. Krasilnichenko←▼Denis Rakhmanov

83'▲R. Minaev←▼D. Kamenshchikov

83'▲D. Polyakh←▼L. Bagatelia

90+1'▲I. Maksimenkov←▼I. Dyatlov

Volga Ulyanovsk substitutes

17Gershun3Krasilnichenko14Minaev99Polyakh4Maksimenkov10Uridia22Rakhmanov47Kravtsov77Bilalov86Shaykhutdinov

League #1061: Veles 1–2 Volga Ulyanovsk

Volga Ulyanovsk beat Veles 2-1 in League #1061 on May 28, 2025.

Goals: D. Kamenshchikov (31'), G. Sarkisyan (34'), I. Gershun (61').

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Podol'sk.

Veles vs Volga Ulyanovsk — League #1061 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #1061: Veles 1–2 Volga Ulyanovsk