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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Ural — First League 2018

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
Preview
15:00
Ural
Ural
4/24/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Trud Stadium
44%
Ural
model favours
28%28%44%

Volga Ulyanovsk score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk28%
×Draw28%
Ural44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.00
Ural
1.32

Ural creates 32% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.86
Ural
1.21

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.43
Ural
1.15

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Ural →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
56%
Volga Ulyanovsk or Ural
72%
Draw or Ural
72%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
10%
Ural wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
63%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
26%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
8%
Ural 1+ goals
73%
Ural 2+ goals
38%
Ural 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
39%
Ural (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Ural away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + Ural defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ural attack 1.21 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
28%
level
28%
Ural scores more
44%

Ural at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ulyanovsk
LWDLL
Ural
LDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Volga Ulyanovsk face Ural (First League)

First League returns with Volga Ulyanovsk hosting Ural. Match starts April 24, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Volga Ulyanovsk host Ural at Trud Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.