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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Ural — Cup 2019

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ural
Ural
9/16/2020CupCup · Group Stage - 1Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk42%
×Draw23%
Ural34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.73
Ural
1.54

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 22 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
2.22
Ural
1.41

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.67
Ural
1.23

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Ural →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
66%
Volga Ulyanovsk or Ural
77%
Draw or Ural
58%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
22%
Ural wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
82%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
52%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
25%
Ural 1+ goals
79%
Ural 2+ goals
45%
Ural 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
55%
Ural (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Ural away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 2.22 + Ural defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ural attack 1.41 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
42%
level
23%
Ural scores more
34%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volga Ulyanovsk vs Ural

Ural beat Volga Ulyanovsk 3-0 in Cup on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Ulyanovsk.