Volga Ulyanovsk vs Rotor Volgograd

Volga Ulyanovsk

Preview

16:00

Rotor Volgograd

3/20/2027

First League · Round 24Trud Stadium

Big match

44%

Rotor Volgograd

model favours

28%29%44%

Volga Ulyanovsk score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1

likely score

62%

under 2.5 goals

44%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk28%

×Draw29%

Rotor Volgograd44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.26

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.94

Rotor Volgograd

1.26

Rotor Volgograd creates 34% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 41 away

0.88

creates per match

1.15

1.38

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.88

Rotor Volgograd

1.15

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.38

Rotor Volgograd

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

56%

Volga Ulyanovsk or Rotor Volgograd

71%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

72%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

10%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

61%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

24%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

7%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

72%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

36%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

39%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 24 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.88 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.15 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

28%

level

29%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

44%

Rotor Volgograd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Ulyanovsk

LWDLL

Volgograd

LLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff