Volga Ulyanovsk 1–2 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

Volga Ulyanovsk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rotor Volgograd

A. Khabibullin 48'

A. Kleshchenko 83'

I. Safronov 29'

7/19/2025

First League · Round 1Trud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk27%

×Draw29%

Rotor Volgograd44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.25

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.91

Rotor Volgograd

1.25

Rotor Volgograd creates 37% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 87 away

0.86

creates per match

1.06

1.43

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.86

Rotor Volgograd

1.06

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.43

Rotor Volgograd

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

56%

Volga Ulyanovsk or Rotor Volgograd

71%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

73%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

9%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

60%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

23%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

6%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

71%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

36%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

38%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

27%

level

29%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

44%

Rotor Volgograd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

28'

29'

41'

48'

59'

D. Davidyan← D. Sasin

59'

Y. Arbuzov← K. Nikishin

59'

A. Khokhlachev← I. Safronov

64'

D. Lavrishchev← M. Maltsev

71'

G. Uridia← E. Voronin

71'

V. Rudenko← D. Kamenshchikov

73'

M. Khramtsov← A. Semenov

74'

Mikhail Umnikov

76'

Yaroslav Arbuzov

76'

I. Zubenko← A. Murza

76'

E. Pshennikov← M. Umnikov

83'

A. Kleshchenko

86'

Nikita Plotnikov

86'

A. Molodtsov← K. Kovalev

90+5'

Nikita Chagrov

Statistics

VolgaRotor

Discipline

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

First League: Volga Ulyanovsk 1–2 Rotor Volgograd

Rotor Volgograd beat Volga Ulyanovsk 2-1 in First League on July 19, 2025.

Goals: I. Safronov (29'), A. Khabibullin (48'), A. Kleshchenko (83').

The match was played at Trud Stadium in Ulyanovsk.

Volga Ulyanovsk vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

First League: Volga Ulyanovsk 1–2 Rotor Volgograd