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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Rotor Volgograd — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
8/19/2023Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 6Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk35%
×Draw31%
Rotor Volgograd35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.89
Rotor Volgograd
0.78

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.22
Rotor Volgograd
1.11

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
65%
Volga Ulyanovsk or Rotor Volgograd
69%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
65%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
13%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
63%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
26%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
8%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
63%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
26%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
50%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.89 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Rotor Volgograd attack 0.78 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
35%
level
31%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
35%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Volga Ulyanovsk 1–2 Rotor Volgograd

Rotor Volgograd beat Volga Ulyanovsk 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Ulyanovsk.