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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2024

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
Preview
16:00
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
3/13/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Trud Stadium
43%
Nizhny Novgorod
model favours
27%30%43%

Volga Ulyanovsk score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk27%
×Draw30%
Nizhny Novgorod43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.88
Nizhny Novgorod
1.19

Nizhny Novgorod creates 35% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 8 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.88
Nizhny Novgorod
1.00

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.38
Nizhny Novgorod
0.88

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
57%
Volga Ulyanovsk or Nizhny Novgorod
70%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
73%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
9%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
59%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
22%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
6%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
70%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
33%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
39%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 24 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.88 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.00 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
27%
level
30%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
43%

Nizhny Novgorod at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Volga Ulyanovsk sit 12, Nizhny Novgorod 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ulyanovsk
LWDLL
Novgorod
WLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Volga Ulyanovsk face Nizhny Novgorod (First League)

First League returns with Volga Ulyanovsk hosting Nizhny Novgorod. Match starts March 13, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Volga Ulyanovsk host Nizhny Novgorod at Trud Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.