Volga Ulyanovsk 1–0 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

Volga Ulyanovsk

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod

Rakhmanov 8'

2/3/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Gloria Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk45%

×Draw24%

Nizhny Novgorod31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.31

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.63

Nizhny Novgorod

1.31

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.38

creates per match

1.63

1.00

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.38

Nizhny Novgorod

1.63

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.00

Nizhny Novgorod

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

69%

Volga Ulyanovsk or Nizhny Novgorod

76%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

55%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

23%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

80%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

48%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

22%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

73%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

38%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

59%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.38 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.63 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

45%

level

24%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

31%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Rakhmanov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff