Volga Ulyanovsk 2–1 Lada Dimitrovgrad

Volga Ulyanovsk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lada Dimitrovgrad

5/6/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk51%

×Draw25%

Lada Dimitrovgrad24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchLada Dimitrovgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.02

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.60

Lada Dimitrovgrad

1.02

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 57% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

1.71

creates per match

1.50

0.54

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.71

Lada Dimitrovgrad

1.50

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.54

Lada Dimitrovgrad

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Lada Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Lada Dimitrovgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

76%

Volga Ulyanovsk or Lada Dimitrovgrad

75%

Draw or Lada Dimitrovgrad

49%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

27%

Lada Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

80%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

47%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

22%

Lada Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals

64%

Lada Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals

27%

Lada Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

68%

Lada Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.54 · 28 matches

Lada Dimitrovgrad away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.71 + Lada Dimitrovgrad defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Lada Dimitrovgrad attack 1.50 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

51%

level

25%

Lada Dimitrovgrad scores more

24%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff