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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Krasnodar 2 — First League 2018

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
4/29/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk38%
×Draw28%
Krasnodar 235%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.22
Krasnodar 2
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 91 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.86
Krasnodar 2
0.89

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.43
Krasnodar 2
1.58

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Krasnodar 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
65%
Volga Ulyanovsk or Krasnodar 2
72%
Draw or Krasnodar 2
62%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
16%
Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
70%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
34%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
12%
Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
69%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
32%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
52%
Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.22

Krasnodar 2 attack 0.89 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
38%
level
28%
Krasnodar 2 scores more
35%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Volga Ulyanovsk 1–0 Krasnodar 2

Volga Ulyanovsk beat Krasnodar 2 1-0 in First League on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Ulyanovsk.