Volga Ulyanovsk 6–1 Khimik Vurnary: Result & Stats

Volga Ulyanovsk

FT

6 – 1

HT: 5 – 0

Khimik Vurnary

A. Tsygantsov 54'

E. Voronin 44'

L. Latsuzbaia 33', 24' (pen)

Dmitri Rakhmanov 29'

Denis Rakhmanov 12'

A. Bychkov 58'

7/28/2019

Cup · 2nd RoundStadion Start

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk70%

×Draw16%

Khimik Vurnary15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchKhimik Vurnary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.95

1.33

Volga Ulyanovsk

2.95

Khimik Vurnary

1.33

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 122% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

2.22

creates per match

1.00

1.67

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

2.22

Khimik Vurnary

1.00

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.67

Khimik Vurnary

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Khimik Vurnary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

85%

Volga Ulyanovsk or Khimik Vurnary

84%

Draw or Khimik Vurnary

30%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

49%

Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

95%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

79%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

55%

Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals

74%

Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals

38%

Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

82%

Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Khimik Vurnary away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 2.22 + Khimik Vurnary defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.95

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.00 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

70%

level

16%

Khimik Vurnary scores more

15%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Denis Rakhmanov

24'

L. LatsuzbaiaPenalty

29'

Dmitri Rakhmanov

33'

L. Latsuzbaia

44'

E. Voronin

46'

A. Tsygantsov← L. Latsuzbaia

46'

V. Saygushev← E. Tsimbal

46'

M. Safin← E. Voronin

54'

A. Tsygantsov

58'

A. Gadzhiev← A. Khabibullin

58'

A. Bychkov

Volga

Khimik

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Voronin

Manager: S. Gunko

46'▲A. Tsygantsov←▼L. Latsuzbaia

46'▲V. Saygushev←▼E. Tsimbal

46'▲M. Safin←▼E. Voronin

58'▲A. Gadzhiev←▼A. Khabibullin

Volga Ulyanovsk substitutes

TsygantsovSaygushevSafinGadzhiev

Manager: A. Eshkin

Match Recap: Volga Ulyanovsk vs Khimik Vurnary

Volga Ulyanovsk beat Khimik Vurnary 6-1 in Cup on July 28, 2019.

Goals: Denis Rakhmanov (12'), L. Latsuzbaia (24' pen, 33'), Dmitri Rakhmanov (29'), E. Voronin (44'), A. Tsygantsov (54'), A. Bychkov (58').

The match was played at Stadion Start in Ulyanovsk.

Volga Ulyanovsk vs Khimik Vurnary — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Volga Ulyanovsk vs Khimik Vurnary