Volga Ulyanovsk 0–1 FK Sokol Saratov

Volga Ulyanovsk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FK Sokol Saratov

5/3/2026

First League · Round 32Trud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk39%

×Draw28%

FK Sokol Saratov33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchFK Sokol Saratov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.09

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.21

FK Sokol Saratov

1.09

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

0.86

creates per match

0.76

1.43

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.86

FK Sokol Saratov

0.76

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.43

FK Sokol Saratov

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

67%

Volga Ulyanovsk or FK Sokol Saratov

72%

Draw or FK Sokol Saratov

61%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

17%

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

70%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

34%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

12%

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals

66%

FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals

30%

FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

54%

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.21

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.76 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

39%

level

28%

FK Sokol Saratov scores more

33%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff