Volga Ulyanovsk 2–0 FC UFA: Result & Stats

Volga Ulyanovsk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC UFA

E. Voronin 51'

A. Murza 6'

10/20/2025

First League · Round 15Trud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk37%

×Draw29%

FC UFA34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchFC UFA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.06

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.13

FC UFA

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 50 away

0.86

creates per match

0.70

1.43

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.86

FC UFA

0.70

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.43

FC UFA

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

FC UFA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

FC UFA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

66%

Volga Ulyanovsk or FC UFA

71%

Draw or FC UFA

63%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

15%

FC UFA wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

68%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

31%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

11%

FC UFA 1+ goals

65%

FC UFA 2+ goals

29%

FC UFA 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

52%

FC UFA (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

FC UFA away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.40 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + FC UFA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

FC UFA attack 0.70 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

37%

level

29%

FC UFA scores more

34%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Aydar Khabibullin

6'

A. Murza

18'

R. Gystarov← F. Mrzljak

24'

Alan Khabalov

26'

Zalimkhan Yusupov

51'

E. Voronin

54'

D. Akhatov← M. Ageyan

54'

W. Chimezie← D. Ortiz

63'

D. Novikov← V. Rudenko

63'

D. Rakhmanov← A. Murza

68'

D. Kamenshchikov← G. Uridia

71'

David Ozmanov

75'

N. Matskharashvili← D. Ozmanov

75'

E. Mayorov← Z. Yusupov

86'

I. Gershun← E. Voronin

86'

V. Yakovlev← R. Shagiakhmetov

88'

Konstantin Kovalev

Statistics

VolgaFC

Discipline

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0