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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Dinamo Makhachkala — First League 2018

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
10/29/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk29%
×Draw32%
Dinamo Makhachkala40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.84
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.05

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 25% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.86
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.68

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.43
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.82

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
60%
Volga Ulyanovsk or Dinamo Makhachkala
68%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
71%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
9%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
57%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
21%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
5%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
65%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
28%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
42%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.68, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.68 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
29%
level
32%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
40%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Volga Ulyanovsk 0–0 Dinamo Makhachkala

Volga Ulyanovsk and Dinamo Makhachkala drew 0-0 in First League on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Ulyanovsk.