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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Chernomorets — First League 2018

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chernomorets
Chernomorets
V. Rudenko 90'
Z. Tarba 39'
9/3/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Trud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk32%
×Draw28%
Chernomorets40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.07
Chernomorets
1.23

Chernomorets creates 15% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.86
Chernomorets
1.04

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.43
Chernomorets
1.29

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
Chernomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Chernomorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
60%
Volga Ulyanovsk or Chernomorets
72%
Draw or Chernomorets
68%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
12%
Chernomorets wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
66%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
29%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
9%
Chernomorets 1+ goals
71%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
35%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
45%
Chernomorets (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Chernomorets away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + Chernomorets defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Chernomorets attack 1.04 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
32%
level
28%
Chernomorets scores more
40%

Chernomorets at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Kirill Morozov
20'
Ruslan Shagiakhmetov
20'
Zaur Tarba
39'
Z. Tarba
61'
G. Zhilkin← S. Puzanov
64'
Danil Novikov
67'
A. Gutsa← O. Krasilnichenko
67'
V. Rudenko← V. Yakovlev
68'
D. Gurchenko← V. Lozhkin
77'
D. Rakhmanov← G. Uridia
77'
M. Umnikov← R. Shagiakhmetov
77'
A. Krachkovskii← Z. Tarba
77'
S. Aliev← I. Kukharchuk
87'
A. Molodtsov← K. Kovalev
90'
V. Rudenko

Statistics

VolgaChernomorets
Discipline
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

First League: Volga Ulyanovsk 1–1 Chernomorets

Volga Ulyanovsk and Chernomorets drew 1-1 in First League on September 3, 2025.

Goals: Z. Tarba (39'), V. Rudenko (90').

The match was played at Trud Stadium in Ulyanovsk.