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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Baltika — First League 2018

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Baltika
Baltika
5/13/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk25%
×Draw27%
Baltika48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.93
Baltika
1.39

Baltika creates 49% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 109 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
0.86
Baltika
1.34

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.43
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
52%
Volga Ulyanovsk or Baltika
73%
Draw or Baltika
75%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
9%
Baltika wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
61%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
24%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
7%
Baltika 1+ goals
75%
Baltika 2+ goals
40%
Baltika 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
35%
Baltika (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Baltika attack 1.34 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
25%
level
27%
Baltika scores more
48%

Baltika at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Volga Ulyanovsk 0–2 Baltika

Baltika beat Volga Ulyanovsk 2-0 in First League on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Ulyanovsk.