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Volendam U21 vs Twente / Heracles U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Volendam U21
Volendam U21
FT
1 – 2
Twente / Heracles U21
Twente / Heracles U21
9/22/2023U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 9Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Volendam U2132%
×Draw21%
Twente / Heracles U2147%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volendam U21
1.73
Twente / Heracles U21
2.13

Twente / Heracles U21 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 60 away

creates per match

Volendam U21
1.43
Twente / Heracles U21
1.82

allows per match

Volendam U21
2.43
Twente / Heracles U21
2.03

finishing

Volendam U21+0.00on par
Twente / Heracles U21+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam U21 ↓

Twente / Heracles U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Volendam U21 or draw
53%
Volendam U21 or Twente / Heracles U21
79%
Draw or Twente / Heracles U21
68%

Winning margin

Volendam U21 wins by 2+
16%
Twente / Heracles U21 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Volendam U21 1+ goals
82%
Volendam U21 2+ goals
52%
Volendam U21 3+ goals
25%
Twente / Heracles U21 1+ goals
88%
Twente / Heracles U21 2+ goals
63%
Twente / Heracles U21 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Volendam U21 (draw refunded)
40%
Twente / Heracles U21 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam U21 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Twente / Heracles U21 away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam U21 attack 1.43 + Twente / Heracles U21 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.73

Twente / Heracles U21 attack 1.82 + Volendam U21 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Volendam U21 scores more
32%
level
21%
Twente / Heracles U21 scores more
47%

Twente / Heracles U21 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Twente / Heracles U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volendam U21 vs Twente / Heracles U21

Twente / Heracles U21 beat Volendam U21 2-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on September 22, 2023.

The match was played at Kras Stadion in Volendam.