Volendam U21 1–4 Groningen U21: Result & Stats

Volendam U21

FT

1 – 4

Groningen U21

10/7/2023

U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 11Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Volendam U2126%

×Draw20%

Groningen U2154%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volendam U21Expected goals in this matchGroningen U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

2.29

Volendam U21

1.53

Groningen U21

2.29

Groningen U21 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 70 away

1.43

creates per match

2.14

2.43

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Volendam U21

1.43

Groningen U21

2.14

allows per match

Volendam U21

2.43

Groningen U21

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volendam U21+0.00on par

Groningen U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam U21 ↓

Groningen U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Volendam U21 or draw

46%

Volendam U21 or Groningen U21

80%

Draw or Groningen U21

74%

Winning margin

Volendam U21 wins by 2+

12%

Groningen U21 wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Volendam U21 1+ goals

78%

Volendam U21 2+ goals

45%

Volendam U21 3+ goals

20%

Groningen U21 1+ goals

90%

Groningen U21 2+ goals

66%

Groningen U21 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Volendam U21 (draw refunded)

32%

Groningen U21 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam U21 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Groningen U21 away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam U21 attack 1.43 + Groningen U21 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.53

Groningen U21 attack 2.14 + Volendam U21 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Volendam U21 scores more

26%

level

20%

Groningen U21 scores more

54%

Groningen U21 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Groningen U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff