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Volendam II vs Rijnsburgse Boys — Tweede Divisie 2019

Volendam II
Volendam II
CANC
00:00
Rijnsburgse Boys
Rijnsburgse Boys
4/18/2020Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 30Kras Stadion (Volendam)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Volendam II31%
×Draw22%
Rijnsburgse Boys47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volendam II
1.58
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.96

Rijnsburgse Boys creates 24% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 98 away

creates per match

Volendam II
1.55
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.93

allows per match

Volendam II
2.00
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.62

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par
Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

Rijnsburgse Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw
53%
Volendam II or Rijnsburgse Boys
78%
Draw or Rijnsburgse Boys
69%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+
15%
Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals
79%
Volendam II 2+ goals
47%
Volendam II 3+ goals
21%
Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals
86%
Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals
58%
Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)
40%
Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

Rijnsburgse Boys away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.62 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.55 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 1.93 + Volendam II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Volendam II scores more
31%
level
22%
Rijnsburgse Boys scores more
47%

Rijnsburgse Boys at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rijnsburgse Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Volendam II host Rijnsburgse Boys

April 18, 2020: Volendam II take on Rijnsburgse Boys in Tweede Divisie. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Volendam II host Rijnsburgse Boys at Kras Stadion (Volendam).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.