Rijnsburgse Boys 1–0 Volendam II: Result & Stats

Rijnsburgse Boys

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Volendam II

11/26/2022

Tweede Divisie · Round 16Sportpark Middelmors Veld 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Rijnsburgse Boys58%

×Draw20%

Volendam II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rijnsburgse BoysExpected goals in this matchVolendam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.40

Rijnsburgse Boys

2.35

Volendam II

1.40

Rijnsburgse Boys creates 68% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 49 away

2.13

creates per match

1.59

1.21

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Rijnsburgse Boys

2.13

Volendam II

1.59

allows per match

Rijnsburgse Boys

1.21

Volendam II

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par

Volendam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnsburgse Boys ↓

Volendam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Rijnsburgse Boys or draw

78%

Rijnsburgse Boys or Volendam II

80%

Draw or Volendam II

42%

Winning margin

Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+

37%

Volendam II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals

90%

Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals

68%

Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals

41%

Volendam II 1+ goals

75%

Volendam II 2+ goals

41%

Volendam II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)

72%

Volendam II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnsburgse Boys at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

Volendam II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 2.13 + Volendam II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.35

Volendam II attack 1.59 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rijnsburgse Boys scores more

58%

level

20%

Volendam II scores more

22%

Rijnsburgse Boys at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rijnsburgse Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff