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Volendam II vs OFC Oostzaan — Tweede Divisie 2019

Volendam II
Volendam II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
10/15/2022Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 11Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Volendam II60%
×Draw20%
OFC Oostzaan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volendam II
2.33
OFC Oostzaan
1.32

Volendam II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 17 away

creates per match

Volendam II
1.67
OFC Oostzaan
0.71

allows per match

Volendam II
1.94
OFC Oostzaan
3.00

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par
OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

OFC Oostzaan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw
79%
Volendam II or OFC Oostzaan
80%
Draw or OFC Oostzaan
40%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+
38%
OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals
90%
Volendam II 2+ goals
67%
Volendam II 3+ goals
41%
OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
73%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
38%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)
74%
OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.94 · 49 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.67 + OFC Oostzaan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

OFC Oostzaan attack 0.71 + Volendam II defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Volendam II scores more
60%
level
20%
OFC Oostzaan scores more
21%

Volendam II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Volendam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volendam II vs OFC Oostzaan

Volendam II beat OFC Oostzaan 2-0 in Tweede Divisie on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Kras Stadion in Volendam.