Volendam II 2–2 Noordwijk: Result & Stats

Volendam II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Noordwijk

9/11/2021

Tweede Divisie · Round 4Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Volendam II38%

×Draw23%

Noordwijk39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volendam IIExpected goals in this matchNoordwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.70

Volendam II

1.66

Noordwijk

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 85 away

1.67

creates per match

1.46

1.94

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Volendam II

1.67

Noordwijk

1.46

allows per match

Volendam II

1.94

Noordwijk

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par

Noordwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

Noordwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw

61%

Volendam II or Noordwijk

77%

Draw or Noordwijk

62%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+

19%

Noordwijk wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals

81%

Volendam II 2+ goals

49%

Volendam II 3+ goals

23%

Noordwijk 1+ goals

82%

Noordwijk 2+ goals

51%

Noordwijk 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)

49%

Noordwijk (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.94 · 49 matches

Noordwijk away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.67 + Noordwijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.66

Noordwijk attack 1.46 + Volendam II defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Volendam II scores more

38%

level

23%

Noordwijk scores more

39%

Noordwijk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Noordwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff