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Volendam II vs Noordwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

Volendam II
Volendam II
CANC
00:00
Noordwijk
Noordwijk
5/16/2020Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 33Kras Stadion (Volendam)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Volendam II36%
×Draw23%
Noordwijk41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volendam II
1.60
Noordwijk
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 84 away

creates per match

Volendam II
1.55
Noordwijk
1.46

allows per match

Volendam II
2.00
Noordwijk
1.65

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par
Noordwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

Noordwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw
59%
Volendam II or Noordwijk
77%
Draw or Noordwijk
64%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+
17%
Noordwijk wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals
80%
Volendam II 2+ goals
47%
Volendam II 3+ goals
22%
Noordwijk 1+ goals
82%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
52%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)
46%
Noordwijk (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

Noordwijk away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.65 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.55 + Noordwijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60

Noordwijk attack 1.46 + Volendam II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Volendam II scores more
36%
level
23%
Noordwijk scores more
41%

Noordwijk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Noordwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Volendam II host Noordwijk

May 16, 2020: Volendam II take on Noordwijk in Tweede Divisie. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Volendam II host Noordwijk at Kras Stadion (Volendam).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.