Volendam II 3–0 Kozakken Boys: Result & Stats

Volendam II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kozakken Boys

2/26/2022

Tweede Divisie · Round 16Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Volendam II40%

×Draw23%

Kozakken Boys36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volendam IIExpected goals in this matchKozakken Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.55

Volendam II

1.65

Kozakken Boys

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 87 away

1.67

creates per match

1.17

1.94

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Volendam II

1.67

Kozakken Boys

1.17

allows per match

Volendam II

1.94

Kozakken Boys

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par

Kozakken Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

Kozakken Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw

64%

Volendam II or Kozakken Boys

77%

Draw or Kozakken Boys

60%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+

20%

Kozakken Boys wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals

81%

Volendam II 2+ goals

49%

Volendam II 3+ goals

23%

Kozakken Boys 1+ goals

79%

Kozakken Boys 2+ goals

46%

Kozakken Boys 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)

53%

Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.94 · 49 matches

Kozakken Boys away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.67 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kozakken Boys attack 1.17 + Volendam II defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Volendam II scores more

40%

level

23%

Kozakken Boys scores more

36%

Volendam II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Volendam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff