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Volendam II vs HHC — Tweede Divisie 2019

Volendam II
Volendam II
FT
2 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
HHC
HHC
12/3/2022Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 17Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Volendam II35%
×Draw23%
HHC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volendam II
1.55
HHC
1.73

HHC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 100 away

creates per match

Volendam II
1.67
HHC
1.53

allows per match

Volendam II
1.94
HHC
1.44

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par
HHC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

HHC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw
58%
Volendam II or HHC
77%
Draw or HHC
65%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+
17%
HHC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals
79%
Volendam II 2+ goals
46%
Volendam II 3+ goals
20%
HHC 1+ goals
82%
HHC 2+ goals
52%
HHC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)
45%
HHC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.94 · 49 matches

HHC away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.67 + HHC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.55

HHC attack 1.53 + Volendam II defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Volendam II scores more
35%
level
23%
HHC scores more
42%

HHC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "HHC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Volendam II 2–6 HHC

HHC beat Volendam II 6-2 in Tweede Divisie on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Kras Stadion in Volendam.