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Volendam II vs FC Lisse — Tweede Divisie 2019

Volendam II
Volendam II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
FC Lisse
FC Lisse
2/11/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 22Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Volendam II47%
×Draw22%
FC Lisse30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volendam II
1.92
FC Lisse
1.50

Volendam II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 35 away

creates per match

Volendam II
1.67
FC Lisse
1.06

allows per match

Volendam II
1.94
FC Lisse
2.17

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par
FC Lisse+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

FC Lisse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw
70%
Volendam II or FC Lisse
78%
Draw or FC Lisse
53%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+
26%
FC Lisse wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals
85%
Volendam II 2+ goals
57%
Volendam II 3+ goals
30%
FC Lisse 1+ goals
78%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
44%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)
61%
FC Lisse (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.94 · 49 matches

FC Lisse away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.67 + FC Lisse defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

FC Lisse attack 1.06 + Volendam II defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Volendam II scores more
47%
level
22%
FC Lisse scores more
30%

Volendam II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Volendam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volendam II vs FC Lisse

Volendam II and FC Lisse drew 2-2 in Tweede Divisie on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Kras Stadion in Volendam.